What the implied move is
A one-standard-deviation estimate for the single session after the report, read straight off the at-the-money straddle. It is the market's price, not its forecast.
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The shape every structure in this session is built against. Buying volatility means paying the left side of this curve and needing the gap to be bigger than the drop. Selling it means collecting the drop and carrying the gap.
Session 03 brief. Education, not advice. No price targets.Published 14 October 2026 · Q3 2026 earnings season
Q3 2026 earnings season · 13 Oct – 17 Nov
THE PEAKEARNINGS
Every report has a price before it happens. The whole session is one question asked forty times: is the move worth more than the premium?
+24.3%expected S&P 500
earnings growth, Q3
earnings growth, Q3
+43.3%expected technology
sector growth
sector growth
8thstraight quarter of
double-digit growth
double-digit growth
26–30October:
the peak week
the peak week
01 / The clock
Forty dated events, one after another.
An earnings season is not a market view. It is a queue of scheduled uncertainties, each with its own price, its own expiry and its own moment of resolution. The structure you choose depends on where in that queue you are standing.
Banks open
JPMorgan, Goldman, Wells Fargo and Citigroup before the open. Mixed: a rare JPMorgan miss, a heavy Goldman beat.
Second wave
Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. The consumer read, one day after the capital-markets read.
The first single names
TSMC, then Netflix on the 20th and Tesla on the 21st. Two very different kinds of catalyst in two days.
Peak week
Alphabet and Microsoft on the 28th, Meta expected the same day, Amazon and Intel on the 29th. The heaviest daily counts of the quarter.
Apple
Fiscal fourth quarter, confirmed by Apple IR. Historically the smallest implied move of the megacaps.
Nvidia closes it
Third quarter fiscal 2027, expected. The print the entire AI complex trades around, five weeks after the season began.
4 wksfrom the first bank to the last megacap
Between 13 October and 17 November the same trade is available forty times over, at forty different prices. That repetition is the reason this session exists: an event you can study in advance, priced in public, with a published history of how the last four attempts turned out.
02 / The mechanics
The premium is the question. The move is the answer.
Implied volatility rises into a dated event and falls the moment it resolves. That fall is not a market opinion — it is arithmetic. The uncertainty the premium was paying for has been removed. Run your own numbers through the calculator, then read what it tells you.
Figure 02. At-the-money straddle, priced from your own chain. It opens on a spot-100 teaching example, as the payoff tools do; nothing here is a live price.
the stock, now
per cent
fill this in afterwards
Implied move—call + put, over spot
Breakevens—the stock must clear one of these
VerdictEnter a chain. The calculator compares what the market is charging with what this name has actually done.
After the print
Implied move ≈ (ATM call + ATM put) ÷ spot, for the first expiry after the report. It is a one-standard-deviation estimate, not a forecast or a limit: roughly a third of the time the move lands outside it. Comparing it with the average realised move tells you whether the premium is rich or cheap against this name's own record — never whether the trade will work.
03 / The ledger
Netflix, worked all the way through.
One name, four quarters, published numbers. This is the exercise every assignment in section 07 repeats on a name of your own choosing.
| Report | Implied move | Realised move | Difference | Who was paid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2025 | 7.1% | −8.4% | +1.3 pts | Buyer |
| Jan 2026 | 7.7% | −4.5% | −3.2 pts | Seller |
| Apr 2026 | 6.1% | −2.1% | −4.0 pts | Seller |
| Jul 2026 | 7.3% | −8.8% | +1.5 pts | Buyer |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 7.3% | — | — | Monday, after the close |
Four quarters is a small sample and nothing here is predictive. Two observations survive it anyway: every one of the last four moves was down, and the two that beat the premium beat it by only about 1.4 points. A buyer who was right twice out of four still had to be right by enough to cover the two losses. That arithmetic, not the direction, is the lesson.
What it is not
A limit. Netflix has cleared it in three of its past eight reports. An implied move is exceeded routinely, which is precisely why it costs something.
Why it collapses
At five o'clock the uncertainty the premium priced no longer exists. The option can be perfectly correct about direction and still be worth less the next morning.
04 / The season, date by date
Eight prints that teach eight different things.
Ordered by date, not importance. Each one carries a different lesson about what the premium is actually paying for — a number, a narrative, a second-order effect, or a date you have not verified.
13Oct · Tue
The banks open the season
JPM · GS · WFC · C, before the open
The season opened on mixed results. JPMorgan posted net income of $15.3bn, up 6%, but earnings per share of $5.57 against about $5.90 expected — a rare miss for the largest US bank. Goldman beat heavily at $17.01 against a $13.65 consensus, with equities revenue up 72%, and led the group higher. Wells Fargo fell about 3% on revenue of $21.87bn.
Going in, the options market had JPM at about ±3.6% and GS at about ±4.7%. Both prints landed inside that. The premium paid for the uncertainty was not returned.
20Oct · Mon
Netflix
NFLX, after the close
The cleanest teaching case of the season, because the history is published. Options data compiled by Bloomberg puts the implied move at 7.3%. Netflix has moved more than its implied move in three of the past eight reports.
Last four: July fell 8.8% against 7.3% implied; April fell 2.1% against 6.1%; January fell 4.5% against 7.7%; October 2025 fell 8.4% against 7.1%. Two of those four paid the buyer. Two paid the seller.
21Oct · Tue
Tesla
TSLA, after the close
Consensus is about 44 cents on roughly $27.8bn of revenue, which would be a 12% contraction on the year. Deliveries of 486,532 beat estimates. Goldman argues the robotaxi, Full Self-Driving and Optimus outlook will matter more to the stock than the earnings line itself.
This is the session's clearest example of a print where the number is not the catalyst. When the move depends on guidance rather than the figure, the implied move is pricing a narrative, not an arithmetic surprise.
27Oct · Tue
Peak week opens
Visa, and the heaviest daily counts of the season
The peak week runs 26 to 30 October. Three days in that week carry more reports than any other day of the quarter, and the index implied move compresses because the single-name moves are expected to offset each other.
That compression is the week's lesson: a basket of large single-name moves does not make a large index move. Correlation, not magnitude, decides what the index does.
28Oct · Wed
Alphabet and Microsoft
GOOGL · MSFT, after the close
Alphabet's third quarter and Microsoft's fiscal 2027 first quarter land the same evening, both confirmed by the companies. Meta is expected the same day. Three of the largest companies in the index report inside one session.
Note the conflict in the calendars: one tracker places Microsoft and Alphabet on 27 October and the megacaps on the 28th. The company IR pages are the source that settles it. Check before you buy an expiry.
29Oct · Thu
Amazon and Intel
AMZN · INTC, after the close
Intel is confirmed for the 29th. Amazon is expected the same day but does not appear on the calendar of confirmed dates, which means the date is a forecast, not an announcement. The cloud capital-expenditure line in Amazon's release is the number that reprices the semiconductor complex, not Amazon's own earnings.
This is the pairs lesson: one company's capex guidance is another company's revenue. The second-order move is often larger than the first.
02Nov · Mon
Apple
AAPL, fiscal fourth quarter
Confirmed twice over: by Apple Investor Relations for 2 November, call at 2:00 pm ET, and again on the calendar of confirmed release dates. One widely circulated logo calendar had it on 29 October and was wrong. Treat the company's own page as the only source that counts.
Apple's implied move is habitually smaller than the rest of the megacaps. A smaller implied move is not a safer trade; it is a cheaper option with a higher bar to clear.
17Nov · Tue
Nvidia
NVDA, third quarter fiscal 2027
The last megacap print of the season, and the one the whole AI complex trades around. Expected on 17 November, with one tracker saying the 18th. Not yet confirmed by the company.
By the time Nvidia reports, every name on your list has already told you something. Session 06 of your reading is where that argument lands; this session is where you learn to price the wait.
Figure 03. Five weeks of the season, as scheduled, split by the hour the release lands where the hour is published.
names this session works onpeak weekgrey = listed outside the US tape
Week of Oct 12 · release timings from Earnings Whispers
Oct 12Mon · 3
LVMUY2408.TWHCLTECH
Oct 13Tue · 12
Before open
JPMGSWFCCUNHJNJDPZACIFBK
After close
AZZ
Time not confirmed
AMX8267.T
Oct 14Wed · 11
Before open
ASMLBACMSBLKPGRSTTFASTSOTK
After close
EQBKHOMB
Time not confirmed
042700.KS
Oct 15Thu · 22
Before open
TSMSCHWPNCBNYMMCCMCERICMANBSVNFHN
After close
AAIBKRJBHTINDBWSEWAFDSFNCCNS
Time not confirmed
PLDNDA-FIEQT ABWIT
Oct 16Fri · 6
Before open
MTBTRVTFCRFCFG
Time not confirmed
RELIANCE
Week of Oct 19
Oct 19Mon · 15
CLFSTLDFITBKAROCCKBOKFAGNCSMBKRBBWTFCZIONWRB1120.SRULTRACEMCOBG.VI
Oct 20Tue · 15
After close
NFLX
Time not confirmed
ISRGGMGEMSCIRTXHASPEGAVICRCOFUALCBALLYABBDB1
Oct 21Wed · 16
After close
TSLA
Time not confirmed
IBMABTTXNLRCXCACITCBIMEDPWDFCPMTTMOCMECSXSAPIBE
Oct 22Thu · 19
LMTCMCSANOKTSCOARGXPOOLMXLRNGSRCEBXPGUNPHONNEMROPSCCOSPOTBCSSAND
Oct 23Fri · 17
AXPSLBFLGBAHALVEAFGNTXGRCFHBITW6954.TENHYRCIRDYVOLV-BINFY
Week of Oct 26 · peak week
Oct 26Mon · 14
CLSAMKRCDNSVZWELLBROARERMBSUHSNUEHIGFFIVCRBMRN
Oct 27Tue · 19
VUPSHOODSOFICAKECVLTENPHFCXCAJPYKOBAPYPLSHWWMGLWNXPI000660.KSHSBCNVS
Oct 28Wed · 16
After close
GOOGLMSFTMETA
Time not confirmed
NOWBSXKLACGEVFDXAPHUBSTMUSPSXSANAIR005930.KSBNP
Oct 29Thu · 18
After close
AMZN
Time not confirmed
INTCSNDKCATRBLXSTMCARRCTSHINSMAXTIMALLYMRKBMYSYKSHELTTEBUD
Oct 30Fri · 14
CVXCBOECCJCNIBPREGNAZNDVRTSABBVLINCLNWG8035.T
Week of Nov 2 · the semiconductor tail
Nov 2Mon · 9
After close
AAPL
Time not confirmed
AEHRHNGECALXBWXTCECHKPMARICHR
Nov 3Tue · 9
AMDBKNGANETALABMPCPFESHOPAPOAPTV
Nov 4Wed · 9
QCOMUBERAPPVSHNVOFSLYVPGZRUN
Nov 5Thu · 9
MPLITECAHAFRMTEAMFUNDVNABNBAKAM
Nov 6Fri · 9
CHTRELANEOGVSTVEONTILEPAASHOSLVM
Week of Nov 9 · the tail, and Nvidia beyond it
Nov 9Mon · 9
OXYKKRHYPRVIAUNITNHIRBAT.RBAEXK
Nov 10Tue · 2
EVLVLAR
Nov 11Wed · 6
CTVAVYLRORPLGOT.KPTT.VLE
Nov 12Thu · 8
AMATCSCONUVINPPALSTNEMBGLBLNE
Nov 13Fri · 0
nothing confirmed
Releases per weekThe season is not evenly spread. The week of 1 November carries 2,437 releases, almost twelve times the 207 of the opening week, and Thursday is the heaviest day in every week of it. Premium is a function of attention, and attention is rationed: in the thick of it, the same quality of print gets a smaller reaction, because every desk is reading forty others at the same time.
Before open or after close is not a detail. A release before the open resolves inside a session you can trade; a release after the close resolves overnight, with no screen and no exit, which is the whole subject of chapter 14. Every after-close name in Figure 03 is a position you either close by five o'clock or carry blind. Timings for the week of 12 October are from Earnings Whispers; later weeks are marked only where the company has stated the hour.
Both earlier conflicts are now closed. The confirmed-dates calendar puts Apple on 2 November, matching Apple Investor Relations, and Intel on 29 October. The logo calendar that placed Apple on the 29th and Intel on the 22nd was wrong on both. That is the lesson rather than the footnote: two published calendars disagreed, and only the company's own page settled it.
What is missing is also information. Meta and Amazon appear here on 28 and 29 October, but neither is on the confirmed-dates calendar — they are expected, not announced. Nvidia, on 17 November, falls outside these five weeks entirely and is still unconfirmed. An expiry bought against an unannounced date is a structure with no catalyst in it. Tickers are the primary listing; grey chips are companies whose shares trade outside the US tape, so their reaction reaches your screen through an ADR or not at all.
05 / The scoreboard
Who beat their implied move.
The only honest ranking of this question is one built from prints that have happened. Three days of the season are in, so three days are ranked. Everything after that is an empty row, and the row is the assignment: fill in the implied move before the print and the realised move after it, and the table ranks itself.
Figure 04. Ranked by realised minus implied, largest first. A positive gap means the move beat the premium and the buyer was paid.
Not saving
| # | Name | Reports | Implied % | Realised % | Gap | Who was paid | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | JPMJPMorgan Chase | 13 Oct | — | awaiting print | Implied ±3.6% pre-print; stock closed up about 1% on an EPS miss. | ||
| — | GSGoldman Sachs | 13 Oct | — | awaiting print | Implied ±4.7%; +3.6% premarket, about +1% to +3.5% through the session. | ||
| — | CCitigroup | 13 Oct | — | awaiting print | Implied move not published in the sources used here. | ||
| — | JNJJohnson & Johnson | 13 Oct | — | awaiting print | One-time charges overshadowed a raised outlook. | ||
| — | DPZDomino's Pizza | 13 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | WFCWells Fargo | 13 Oct | — | awaiting print | Revenue of $21.87bn disappointed. | ||
| — | UNHUnitedHealth | 13 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | ASMLASML | 14 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | BACBank of America | 14 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | MSMorgan Stanley | 14 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | BLKBlackRock | 14 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | TSMTSMC | 15 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | SCHWCharles Schwab | 15 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | IBKRInteractive Brokers | 15 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | AAAlcoa | 15 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | NFLXNetflix | 20 Oct | — | awaiting print | Beat its implied move in 3 of the past 8; 2 of the last 4. | ||
| — | GEGE Aerospace | 20 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | GMGeneral Motors | 20 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | TSLATesla | 21 Oct | — | awaiting print | Guidance, not EPS, is the catalyst. | ||
| — | IBMIBM | 21 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | TXNTexas Instruments | 21 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | LRCXLam Research | 21 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | LMTLockheed Martin | 22 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | CMCSAComcast | 22 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | VVisa | 27 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | KOCoca-Cola | 27 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | BABoeing | 27 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | MSFTMicrosoft | 28 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | GOOGLAlphabet | 28 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | METAMeta | 28 Oct | — | awaiting print | Date expected, not announced. | ||
| — | KLACKLA | 28 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | INTCIntel | 29 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | AMZNAmazon | 29 Oct | — | awaiting print | Date expected, not announced. | ||
| — | MAMastercard | 29 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | LLYEli Lilly | 29 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | CATCaterpillar | 29 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | CVXChevron | 30 Oct | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | AAPLApple | 2 Nov | — | awaiting print | Smallest implied move of the megacaps, habitually. | ||
| — | AMDAdvanced Micro Devices | 3 Nov | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | QCOMQualcomm | 4 Nov | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | UBERUber | 4 Nov | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | MPMP Materials | 5 Nov | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | AMATApplied Materials | 12 Nov | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | CSCOCisco | 12 Nov | — | awaiting print | |||
| — | NVDANvidia | 17 Nov | — | awaiting print | Expected; closes the season. |
0 rankedrows with both numbers
0beat the implied move
0fell short of it
—buyer hit rate
Seeded rows carry only figures published in the sources at the foot of this page: implied moves for JPMorgan and Goldman, and the realised reactions of 13 October. Where the implied move was never published, the cell is empty and the row stays unranked — a realised move on its own ranks nothing, because the question is not how far a stock moved but whether it moved further than it was priced to. Your own entries are yours; they are stored with your record and are not part of anyone else's figures.
06 / The sequence
The early print tells you what the late one will say.
A season is not forty independent events. It is eight supply chains reporting in order, and the companies at the front of each one hand you the number the companies behind them have not yet published. Select any stop to see what transfers, and to whom.
AI capex
The longest chain of the season, and the one every other technology print feeds
Consumer credit
Lending first, spending later — the chain that tells you whether the consumer is fine
Advertising
One ad market, read four times
Enterprise IT
Budget direction, from the oldest stack to the newest
Autos and the EV chain
Demand first, then the parts, then the magnets
Aerospace and defence
Engines follow airframes; airframes follow budgets
Energy and commodity
Services, then producers, then the refiners
Health care
One sector, two very different weeks
These are reading orders, not forecasts. An early print narrows the range of what a later one can say; it does not determine it, and a chain can break at any link — a supplier gains share while its customer shrinks, a capex guide is cut after the equipment was already ordered. What the sequence does reliably is move the premium: once the first name in a chain reports, the implied move on the ones behind it reprices, usually within the session. That repricing, not the direction, is what this session trades.
07 / From print to structure
Three questions, asked in order.
Session 01 bought volatility into an undated catalyst. Session 02 took a side. An earnings print is the hardest of the three, because the date is known to everyone and the price already reflects it. These three questions decide what you build.
Question 1
Is the premium rich or cheap?
Implied move against this name's own last four. Rich means the market is charging more than the stock has recently delivered.
Question 2
Is the catalyst the number?
Or is it guidance, a product, a capex line? A narrative catalyst resolves slowly, which changes the expiry you need.
Question 3
Can you survive being right?
If the move is correct but smaller than the premium, you still lose. That is the question most students skip.
Result
The structure
Cheap premium and a binary number: own volatility. Rich premium and a slow catalyst: owning it is expensive. Either way, cost both sides before you choose one.
Buying the move
The straddle and the strangle from session 01, now priced against a known date. The buyer needs the gap to beat the premium and the crush. Netflix cleared that bar twice in four quarters, and by about a point and a half each time.
Selling the move
The other side of the same chain, which collects the crush and carries the gap. Assignment 04 asks you to price it so you understand what your counterparty was paid. It does not ask you to sell it; undefined short premium into a dated event is how small accounts end.
The date itself
Two of the eight prints above are not company-confirmed, and two calendars disagree on Microsoft, Alphabet and Apple. An expiry bought against the wrong date is a structure with no catalyst in it at all.
08 / Risk factors
What actually goes wrong in an earnings season.
Not the direction. These four.
Right, and still down
Every long structure
The stock moves your way by less than the premium you paid. The position was correct and the account is smaller. Chapter 12 named this in session 02; here it has a date attached.
The unverified date
AMZN · META · NVDA
Three of this season's biggest prints are still expected rather than announced. Apple and Intel were both mis-dated by a published calendar until the company's own page settled it. Buying an expiry before that check is the most avoidable loss available.
The overnight gap
Every position held through 5:00 pm
There is no managing a position between the close and the next open. Whatever rule you have must be written before the close, not discovered after it.
The chain, not the stock
The whole season
One company's capex guidance is another company's revenue. The second print moves on the first one's release, and its premium repricises before it reports.
09 / Homework and reading
Eight assignments, five chapters, one season.
Every assignment is one name, studied properly, and all of them are on paper. No live risk is required to complete any of them, and none of them asks you to take a position. The reading is the five chapters that explain why a dated event prices the way it does.
Your record, session 03 · The Peak Earnings0 of 29 ticked
0 of 8 you could teachChecking your record…
You are signed in, so your ticks are saved to your student record: they follow you across devices and your instructor can see what has been completed. Nobody grades them and no one scores you on them: what the record shows is coverage, not judgement. An unticked box is not a failure, it is the most useful line on the page — the part you have not done, or the part you could not explain.
5 chapterssession 03 · event volatility
An earnings print is a dated event with a published price, so this session reads the chapters about precision, time and the close: what you pay for exactness, what time itself is worth, what happens at five o'clock, the week at the screen, and the whipsaw that catches anyone who holds through one badly.
S01 · The AI Chokepoint Framework
Straddle + strangle15, 10, 11, 20, 22, 1
Straddle + strangle15, 10, 11, 20, 22, 1
S02 · The Summit Wiring
Long call + long put8, 9, 12, 25, 26, 5
Long call + long put8, 9, 12, 25, 26, 5
S03 · The Peak Earnings
Event volatility21, 23, 14, 27, 3
Event volatility21, 23, 14, 27, 3
S04 · The Midterm Elections
Multi-leg structures16, 17, 18, 19, 4
Multi-leg structures16, 17, 18, 19, 4
S05 · The Santa Claus Rally
Income and discipline13, 24, 28, 29, 6
Income and discipline13, 24, 28, 29, 6
S06 · The Dogs of the Dow
Income across the pillars30, 31, 32, 2, 7
Income across the pillars30, 31, 32, 2, 7
32 chapters · 6 sessions · the whole book read by session 06
Full plan, session by session
- S01The AI Chokepoint Framework · Straddle + strangle — Both structures are bought volatility, so the session reads what builds them: the primitives, what you are actually buying, the sensitivities, the move itself, and width.
15 The Four Primitives p. 159 · 10 What You Are Actually Buying p. 101 · 11 The Four Sensitivities p. 109 · 20 Buying and Selling the Move p. 201 · 22 Buying Width p. 221 · 1 My First Love Was an Equation p. 3 - S02The Summit Wiring · Long call + long put — Two single legs, both directional: the line and its edges, being right and losing anyway, the number that decides everything, and the view turned into a structure.
8 The Line, and What It Hides p. 87 · 9 Read the Edges First p. 95 · 12 Right and Still Wrong p. 119 · 25 The Number That Decides Everything p. 249 · 26 From a View to a Structure p. 257 · 5 The Fourth of June p. 55 - S03The Peak Earnings · Event volatility — Dated events, priced in advance: paying for precision, trading time, what happens at five o'clock, the week at the screen, and the whipsaw that catches anyone who holds through one badly.
21 Paying for Precision p. 211 · 23 Trading Time p. 229 · 14 What Happens at Five O'Clock p. 147 · 27 A Week at the Screen p. 265 · 3 Through the Whipsaw p. 31 - S04The Midterm Elections · Multi-leg structures — A long political catalyst wants more than one leg: the costume, trading a distance, mismatched counts and the third strike.
16 The Costume p. 167 · 17 Trading a Distance p. 177 · 18 When the Counts Don't Match p. 185 · 19 The Third Strike p. 193 · 4 A Wall Built for the Wrong Crash p. 41 - S05The Santa Claus Rally · Income and discipline — The seasonal trade tests discipline rather than insight: small capital against real risk, the identities underneath, the journal that works, and the chapter on losing.
13 Small Capital, Real Risk p. 135 · 24 The Identities Underneath p. 237 · 28 The Only Journal That Works p. 273 · 29 When It Goes Against You p. 283 · 6 Your Broker Has Eighteen Months p. 63 - S06The Dogs of the Dow · Income across the pillars — Income is where it starts, then equities, property and crypto, then the fourth generation.
30 Income Is Where It Starts p. 293 · 31 Equities, Property, Crypto p. 299 · 32 The Fourth Generation p. 309 · 2 Bought at Eight Thousand, Held Through the Laughter p. 19 · 7 Twenty-Seven Months p. 73
Chapters follow the structure each session deploys, not the book's sequence. The match between a chapter and a structure is read from the Contents, so check it against Appendix B (p. 325) and Finding a Structure (p. 341) before you rely on it. Page numbers are from the hardcover.
01
Due: Before the print
Price the move before anyone tells you
Pick one name reporting this season. Take the at-the-money call and put for the first expiry after its report, add them, divide by the spot. That is the implied move. Write your own expected move down first, before you look at the chain.
Read before you start
- Chapter 21 · Paying for Precisionp. 211
- The calculator in section 02run your own numbers through it
02
Due: Before the print
Build the four-quarter table
For that same name, find the last four earnings reactions and the implied move going into each. Lay them side by side. Count how many times the move beat the premium.
Read before you start
- Chapter 23 · Trading Timep. 229
- Section 03 of this briefthe Netflix table, worked
03
Due: Report day
Cost the straddle, then the strangle
Build both on paper for your name: the at-the-money straddle, then a strangle one or two strikes wider. Write both breakevens for each, and the percentage move required to clear them.
Read before you start
- Chapter 21 · Paying for Precisionp. 211
- Finding a Structurep. 341, then the Reference page at 341 + structure number
04
Due: Report day
Cost the other side
Now price what the seller receives on the same chain: the credit, the maximum risk, and the move that destroys it. You are not being asked to sell it. You are being asked to know what the person on the other side of your trade was paid.
Read before you start
- Chapter 23 · Trading Timep. 229
- Chapter 3 · Through the Whipsawp. 31
05
Due: Report day to the next open
Log the crush, minute by minute
Record the premium and implied volatility of your straddle at the close on report day, then again at the open the next morning. Record the stock's move over the same window.
Read before you start
- Chapter 14 · What Happens at Five O'Clockp. 147
- Chapter 23 · Trading Timep. 229
06
Due: Any day this season
Find the second print
Pick a name that reports after yours and sits in the same supply chain. Show how the first print changes the second one's implied move, and say whether that makes the second structure cheaper or dearer.
Read before you start
- Chapter 27 · A Week at the Screenp. 265
- Section 04 of this briefthe season, name by name
07
Due: Any day this season
Write the five o'clock rule
In your own words, write the rule you will follow when a position is still open at the close on a report day. Not a hope. A rule, with a number in it.
Read before you start
- Chapter 14 · What Happens at Five O'Clockp. 147
- Chapter 3 · Through the Whipsawp. 31
08
Due: End of the season
Write the post-mortem
Three hundred words. Did the move beat the premium? Was your pre-chain expectation closer or further than the market's? And which of the four quarters in your table should have warned you?
Read before you start
- Chapter 27 · A Week at the Screenp. 265
- Chapter 28 · The Only Journal That Worksp. 273 — forward read, session 05
How to work
Paper first, and your number before anyone else's. A view formed after reading the preview is the preview's view, not yours.
Nobody collects this
There is no marking and no submission. You tick your own boxes. Bring 02, 04 and 07 to the live session; those are the ones we will argue about.
The rule that outranks the rest
This is education, not advice, and nothing here is a recommendation. Structures are costed on paper, so a bad season costs you a page of writing rather than capital.