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Income for Options Trading · Spiking · Google Cloud Partner · powered by aws Income for Options Trading · Spiking · Google Cloud Partner · powered by aws THE DISCLOSED RECORDSession 02 · Summit
Pre-summit brief. Not a recommendation. No price targets.Updated 22 September 2026, evening SGT · prices as of 18 September close
Washington state visit, 23–25 September 2026

THE SUMMIT WIRING

Every concession on the table is wired to a line on the tape. Follow the wire and the summit stops being a photo opportunity and becomes a set of tradable outcomes.

Trace the wiring Read sector by sector
3rdface-to-face meeting
in about 11 months
10 Novtruce expiry,
~7 weeks after Thursday
200Boeing jets pledged
in May, no contract yet
~125seats at the
East Room dinner
01 / The clock

Three meetings, one expiry date.

The summit only makes sense against its calendar. Each meeting has produced pledges that the next meeting is expected to convert, and the truce that holds it all together runs out on 10 November. If Thursday goes well, the calendar keeps going: APEC in Shenzhen and the G20 in Miami.

Busan

One-year truce: Washington suspends the Affiliates Rule; Beijing keeps rare earths moving. China agrees to 25 million tonnes of US soybeans a year through 2028.

Beijing

State visit. China pledges 200 Boeing aircraft; US officials cite a further $17bn of farm purchases. Beijing never confirms either figure.

New York

Twelve hours at JPMorgan's headquarters. Bessent calls it successful; the truce expiry was the focal point, alongside rare earths and an AI-incident channel.

Washington

Trump meets Xi at Joint Base Andrews. Thursday: arrival ceremony, bilateral talks, state dinner.

Departure

Private tea, National Archives tour, wheels up. Mainland China markets are shut for Mid-Autumn; Hong Kong trades, so it takes the first China read.

Truce expires

The suspension of higher reciprocal tariffs lapses unless extended. US midterms and APEC Shenzhen fall the same month.

~1 yrCSIS expected extension

Beijing wants the ceasefire extended to the end of Trump's term; Washington wants a few months to keep leverage. CSIS's Scott Kennedy expects them to meet in the middle, at about a year. The length of the extension is the single number that sets the risk premium on everything below.

02 / The ledger

Both leaders need a win that shows up in prices.

Expectations are deliberately modest; CSIS's Edgard Kagan calls the visit itself the message. The pressure behind each side explains which concessions are cheap to give and which are not.

Washington

Lead negotiators: Bessent (Treasury), Greer (USTR)

  • Rare-earth shipments normalisedyttrium, scandium, neodymium, indium
  • Contracted farm purchasessorghum and corn beyond soybeans
  • Boeing delivery and financing termsconverts the May pledge
  • Distance from IranOperation Economic Outcast, August
  • Energy volumesUS crude and LNG
  • An AI-incident channelagents, cyber and bio risks; no liability shield for labs

Midterms in November will be fought on the cost of living, and the Fed raised rates again last week.

>$6diesel per gallon
3.4%inflation
Managenot a comprehensive deal (Greer)

Beijing

Lead negotiator: Vice Premier He Lifeng

  • Truce through the end of the termvs. a short US extension
  • ~$30bn Board of Trade basketabout 10 product categories still disputed
  • Delay on the tech-access rulethousands of Chinese firms affected
  • Taiwan arms package kept frozen$14bn, approved January, not notified
  • A clear line against Taiwan independenceexpected to take a back seat to Iran

Growth target of 4.5–5%, the lowest in decades, and CSIS argues even that flatters reality.

0.4%retail sales, Aug (0.8% forecast)
+5.2%industrial output, Aug
−7.2%fixed-asset investment, Jan–Aug
¥360bninjected into state banks
03 / The wiring

Ten levers. Eight sectors. Eighteen exposures.

Select any lever, sector or ticker. The map lights the full path from the negotiating table to the instrument, and shows which exposures share a wire and would therefore move together.

Figure 02. Lever → sector → listed exposure. Colour marks the side pressing the lever.

Lever at the table

Sector it reaches

Listed exposure

Start anywhere

Select a node

Semiconductors carry the most wires: chip licensing, rare earths, the truce and Taiwan all reach them. That concentration is why a single adjective in the communiqué can move the whole group.

04 / Sector by sector

What would have to be written for each line to move.

Ranked by how directly the communiqué wording reaches earnings. A ceasefire-not-treaty outcome is already partly priced, so each record names the specific language that would count as news.

Eight sectors, ranked by summit sensitivity
01
Sensitivity 5 / 5

Semiconductors / export-control language

Semiconductors

Beijing's ask

The highest-voltage wire. Beijing wants enforcement delayed on a rule that would bar thousands of Chinese firms from advanced US technology; Washington's price is normalised rare-earth and critical-mineral shipments. Chip licensing was explicitly on the Bessent–He agenda in New York.

Keep two tracks apart. The AI-safety track is moving: Bessent and He discussed a channel for AI incidents, and the White House says labs get no federal liability shield. Chip export relief is the harder, separate issue, and it is the one that reaches earnings.

Any change to AI-chip or chip-equipment rules hits earnings more directly than broad AI-safety cooperation. A clause vague enough to need legal interpretation could keep the group volatile for a week rather than settle in one session.

Would read as a positiveLicensing clarity or softer rules on AI accelerators
Would read as a negativeNew restrictions on accelerators or equipment
NVDA~$222 · YTD +19.5%

Core business sits directly on the licensing language. Jensen Huang is at the dinner.

INTC$112.96 AH · YTD +187.5%

A +147.5% six-month run leaves it acutely sensitive to any shift in the export-control regime.

QCOMverify

Qualcomm has confirmed Cristiano Amon will attend the dinner. China handset exposure rides the same wire.

AMDverify

Lisa Su attended the dinner. Accelerators sit on the same licensing clause as Nvidia's.

MUverify

Sanjay Mehrotra attended. Memory is its own chokepoint, and China is a large share of the end market.

TSMverify

Not a negotiating item, but Taiwan wording reaches the centre of the advanced-chip supply chain.

02
Sensitivity 4 / 5

Aerospace / the unfinished pledge

Aerospace

Washington's ask

The most direct binary trade of the week. China pledged 200 aircraft in May, but no transaction details have followed. The market already knows the number; what it lacks is the contract.

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg has recently played down expectations of another large order at this summit, which raises the bar for a positive surprise. One outlet refers to a 500-jet deal; that conflicts with every other report and is treated here as unverified.

Would read as a positiveDelivery timelines or financing terms for the 200 jets
Would read as a negativeA vague communiqué with no follow-through
BA$198.20 · YTD −9.15%

Down about 11% over three months. 52-week range $176.77–$254.35.

GEverify

Larry Culp attended the dinner. Engine orders follow airframe orders, so GE Aerospace rides the same contract.

03
Sensitivity 4 / 5

Critical minerals / the card China holds

Rare earths

Washington's ask

China controls roughly 60% of global rare-earth processing. More material is flowing than a year ago, but US aerospace and chip firms still struggle for access, and some Chinese exporters hold back for fear of repercussions from Beijing.

For a Western supplier, a deal cuts both ways: it eases industrial supply but can shrink the scarcity premium on alternative supply. Separately, China Rare Earth Group is reportedly in talks to buy Shenghe Resources, a key MP shareholder.

Would read as a positiveA supply-access framework with defined timelines
Would read as a negativeLanguage without a timetable; China keeps its card
MP$47.26 · 1M −21.3% · 1Y −35.45%

Two-sided: relief for users of rare earths can be a headwind for the scarcity trade.

04
Sensitivity 3 / 5

Agriculture / cargo already loading

Agriculture

Washington's ask

The least sensitive part of the relationship, and so the likeliest deliverable. China bought about 1 million tonnes of US soybeans in the week of 10 September alone and is on track for the Busan commitment.

The processors have already run hard on that buying. The post-summit question is whether commitments extend to sorghum and corn, or whether momentum stalls at soybeans.

Would read as a positiveNamed volumes for sorghum and corn
Would read as a negativeSoybeans only, no new commitments
ADM$85.18 · YTD +48.3%

Much of the diplomatic good news is already in the price.

BG$115.58 · YTD +29.6%

Down 4.7% on the week into the summit.

ZSsoybean futures

The most direct instrument for any volume figure.

05
Sensitivity 3 / 5

Offshore China / tariff relief and tone

China and Hong Kong equities

Beijing's ask

The Board of Trade set up in May is meant to carry around $30bn of non-strategic goods at low or zero tariffs, but the basket is still being defined, with about ten product categories in dispute. The separate Board of Investment has stalled.

Offshore China is the broadest read on the truce length and on the Taiwan wording. A weak domestic economy raises Beijing's need for a visible external win. On Friday 25 September mainland markets are closed for Mid-Autumn while Hong Kong trades, so Hong Kong prices the summit first.

Would read as a positiveA long truce extension plus named tariff lines
Would read as a negativeA short extension, or a Taiwan statement that disappoints Beijing
China / HKindex level

Flagged for event-driven volatility. BYD, Xiaomi, CATL, Gotion, Hisense, Wanxiang, Bank of China and COFCO were reported under consideration for Xi's delegation.

06
Sensitivity 2 / 5

Autos / caught in the middle

Autos and batteries

Beijing's ask

Auto and battery localisation is one of the three numbers analysts will read first. Ford uses Chinese supply-chain partnerships while lobbying against Chinese vehicle competition, which makes it a direct policy barometer.

Rare earths reach this sector too: they are components of EV batteries and motors.

Would read as a positiveSupply-chain cooperation language
Would read as a negativeTougher localisation demands
F$13.21 · 1M −8.3% · YTD +0.2%

Roughly flat on the year, with room to move either way on headlines.

07
Sensitivity 2 / 5

Energy / Iran and purchase volumes

Energy

Washington's ask

Iran is Trump's priority; Taiwan is Xi's, and Taiwan is now expected to take a back seat to Iran in the talks. China remains Iran's largest trading partner, and Beijing has been buying more oil on the open market, which CSIS reads as reduced Iranian purchases that could itself move prices.

A pledge of named US crude or LNG volumes would be the energy deliverable to watch.

Would read as a positiveSpecific US crude or LNG volumes
Would read as a negativeA vague communiqué with no volumes
CL / LNGWTI ~$94.70

Crude sits in a tight market, with diesel above $6 a gallon in the US.

08
Sensitivity 2 / 5

Biopharma / a new wire this week

Biopharma licensing

Both sides

The newest wire on the map. Reuters reported that Washington is working on rules that would likely let US drugmakers keep licensing most drugs from Chinese firms, even as it tightens investment limits elsewhere. Chinese biopharma stocks jumped in Hong Kong on Monday on the report.

This carve-out runs against the direction of travel in chips, which is why it is worth watching separately. Confirmation in the summit readout would formalise a trade that has already moved once.

Would read as a positiveLicensing carve-out confirmed or written into the readout
Would read as a negativeSilence, or the rules narrowed before publication
HK biopharmasector; rallied 21 Sep

Hong Kong-listed Chinese drug developers. Part of the move is already made; the question is confirmation.

05 / The dinner table

Every seat is a China exposure.

The White House released the list on the night. It reads as a map of the trade relationship: the executives in the room are the ones whose revenue the afternoon's language moves.

130

Invited guests, plus the two presidents and their wives, in the East Room on 24 September. Thirty-two of those seats are held by people running a listed company with a wire into this summit. The Chinese business delegation everyone expected never materialised: the guest list carries officials only.

Business guests at the state dinner and the summit wire each one connects to.
GuestCompanyListed lineWire into the summit
Jensen Huang · Lori HuangNvidiaNVDAChip licensing, the tech-access rule
Lisa Su · Daniel LinAdvanced Micro DevicesAMDAccelerators on the same licensing clause
Sanjay Mehrotra · Sangeeta MehrotaMicronMUMemory, its own chokepoint
Cristiano AmonQualcommQCOMChip licensing, China handsets
Tim CookApple, executive chairAAPLChina assembly and China demand
Satya NadellaMicrosoftMSFTAI regime, cloud
Sundar Pichai · Sergey BrinGoogleGOOGLAI regime, export controls
Sam Altman · Greg BrockmanOpenAIprivateThe AI-incident channel
Michael Dell · Susan DellDell TechnologiesDELLHardware supply chain
Eric YuanZoomZMUS software inside China's market
Mark ZuckerbergMetaMETABlocked in China; the AI race itself
Kelly OrtbergBoeingBAThe 200-jet pledge
Larry CulpGE AerospaceGEEngines follow airframes
James TaicletLockheed MartinLMTThe Taiwan arms package
Mary Barra · Anthony BarraGeneral MotorsGMAutos, batteries, rare earths
Elon MuskSpaceX and TeslaTSLAChina production and batteries
Jeff Bezos · Lauren Sanchez-BezosAmazonAMZNTariff lines on consumer goods
Darren Woods · Kathy WoodsExxonMobilXOMUS crude and LNG volumes
Albert BourlaPfizerPFEThe pharma licensing carve-out
Jamie DimonJPMorgan ChaseJPMHosted the Bessent–He pre-talks
Jane FraserCitigroupCCross-border capital flows
David Solomon · John F.W. RogersGoldman SachsGSCross-border capital flows
Larry FinkBlackRockBLKChina allocation
Stephen SchwarzmanBlackstoneBXChina private capital
Ryan McInerneyVisaVPayments access in China
Michael MiebachMastercardMAPayments access in China
Bernard Arnault · Alexandre ArnaultLVMHMC.PAChinese luxury demand
Jeff YassByteDance and TikTok investorprivateThe TikTok file
Brad Gerstner · Katie SimpsonAltimeterprivateAI capital
Miriam AdelsonInvestor and philanthropistLVSMacau exposure
David Ellison · Sandra Lynn EllisonParamount SkydancePSKYContent into China
Lynn MartinNew York Stock ExchangeICEChinese listings

Three of these seats were not in any pre-summit report and are now on the map in section 03: Lisa Su (AMD), Sanjay Mehrotra (Micron) and Larry Culp (GE Aerospace). Tickers are the primary listing; LVMH and Paramount Skydance trade outside the US tape. Spouses are shown beside the principal where both were invited.

The rest of the room, as released
  1. HostsPresident Donald Trump and Melania Trump · President Xi Jinping and Peng Liyuan
  2. USJD Vance and Usha Vance · Marco Rubio and Jeanette Rubio · Susie Wiles · David Perdue and Bonnie Perdue · Scott Bessent and John Freeman · Pete Hegseth · Jamieson Greer and Marlo Greer · Howard Lutnick and Allison Lutnick · Chris Wright · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cheryl Hines · Linda McMahon · Doug Burgum and Kathryn Burgum · Sean Duffy and Rachel Campos-Duffy · Todd Blanche and Kristine Blanche · Russell Vought · Lee Zeldin · Keith Sonderling · Kelly Loeffler and Jeff Sprecher · Kevin Warsh and Jane Lauder · John Ratcliffe and Michele Ratcliffe · Jay Clayton · Gen. Dan Caine · Steve Witkoff · Stephen Miller and Katie Miller · Dan Scavino and Erin Scavino · Chief Justice John Roberts and Jane Sullivan Roberts · Justice Amy Coney Barrett and Jesse Barrett · Justice Brett Kavanaugh and Ashley Estes Kavanaugh · Speaker Mike Johnson and Kelly Johnson · Rep. Rich McCormick · Rep. Jason Smith · Sen. Steve Daines
  3. ChinaCai Qi, chief of staff to Xi · Wang Yi, director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs · He Lifeng, vice-premier · Zheng Shanjie, NDRC · Wang Wentao, commerce minister · Lan Fo'an, finance minister · Ma Zhaoxu, executive vice-minister of foreign affairs · Xie Feng, ambassador to the US, and Wang Dan · Tang Fangyu, Central Policy Research Office · Zhou Hongxu, Central Security Bureau · Lyu Luhua, secretary to Xi · Hong Lei, Protocol Department · Cai Wei, North American and Oceanian Affairs · Mao Ning, Press and Public Diplomacy · Zhang Quan, secretary to Peng · Zhang Yongchao, North American and Oceanian Affairs
  4. Family, media, otherIvanka Trump · Eric Trump · Lara Trump · Tiffany Trump and Michael Boulos · Viktor Knavs · Arabella Kushner · Bret Baier and Amy Baier · Laura Ingraham · Jesse Watters and Emma Watters · Linda G. Mills, New York University · Meredith O'Rourke, The O'Rourke Group · David Sacks, President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology
06 / Scenarios

The floor is priced. The surprises are not.

Goldman's base case is a delay, not a breakthrough. That puts the asymmetry in specifics: concrete volumes or licensing language would move faster than a vague communiqué, which markets have partly prepared for.

Upside surprise

Numbers in the text

A truce of a year or more, a defined Board of Trade basket, Boeing delivery terms, farm volumes beyond soybeans, and dates for APEC Shenzhen and the G20 in Miami.

  • BA, ADM, BG: contract detail
  • NVDA, INTC: licensing clarity
  • China / HK: re-rate on truce length
Base case (Goldman)

Ceasefire, not treaty

Both sides extend the truce and step back from extreme positions. One former US diplomat calls it a managed stalemate. Largely priced; a short or ambiguous extension keeps volatility elevated.

  • Semis: a week of chop on vague wording
  • MP: China keeps its rare-earth card
  • BA: pledge repeated, no contract
Tail risk

Breakdown

No extension before the November expiry. Almost no analyst sees this as likely, given the midterm clock.

  • Tariff suspension lapses on 10 November
  • Rare-earth leverage re-activated
  • Taiwan and Iran re-enter the price
07 / Correlation risk

Eighteen exposures. Four shared wires.

These are not eighteen independent bets. The same few variables sit behind most of them, and a surprise on one wire moves every line connected to it.

Truce length

All seven sectors

The single variable that sets the risk premium. A few months versus a full term is the difference between a relief rally and continued brinkmanship.

Taiwan wording

NVDA · INTC · QCOM · AMD · MU · TSM · China / HK

Taiwan is expected to take a back seat to Iran this week, which lowers the odds of a wording shock but not its impact. Even subtle shifts matter because Taiwan sits at the centre of advanced chipmaking. The un-notified $14bn arms package is the pressure point.

Rare-earth access

MP · BA · GE · F · semis equipment

Minerals feed jets, EVs and lithography tools. The same clause is a tailwind for users and a headwind for the scarcity trade.

Iran

Crude · LNG · China / HK

A geopolitical derailer outside the trade file. China's oil buying patterns can move prices on their own.

08 / From wire to strategy

Connect the dots, and the structure chooses itself.

The wiring tells you which lines the summit reaches. Three tests then tell you whether that line suits buying a call. Where a name fails a test, the failure itself points to the structure that fits instead.

Step 1

Direction

Does the likely surprise point up, not both ways? A two-sided catalyst belongs to a straddle, not a call.

Step 2

Expectations

Is the stock depressed going in? A name that has already run has less room and a sell-the-news risk.

Step 3

Catalyst

Is the lifting outcome achievable this week? A real catalyst with low odds calls for a capped premium.

Result

The structure

Pass all three: 01 Long call. Pass with doubts: 12 Bull call spread. Two-sided: a straddle or strangle. Already run: protect, don't chase.

Ranked by fit for 01 Long call ahead of the summit
Stocks named in this brief ranked by suitability for a long call ahead of the summit, with the three tests and the structure each result points to.
RankStockSetup going inTestsStructure it points toWhy
01QCOMLatest session on Investing.com: −5.82%. CEO confirmed at the dinner.DEC01 Long callStarts from a low base; chip-licensing and China-handset relief both point up. The only name that passes all three tests.
02BA$198.20. YTD −9.15%; about −11% over three months.DEC01 Long callClear bull trigger: contract terms for the 200 jets. The CEO lowered expectations, so the bar is low. Production problems are the risk.
03NVDA~$222. YTD +19.5%.DEC12 Bull call spreadHighest upside if licensing clarifies, but chip export relief is the harder, separate track. A real catalyst with low odds, so cap the premium.
04F$13.21. 1M −8.3%; flat YTD.DEC12 Bull call spreadCheap and not stretched, but its wire carries few levers. A summit catalyst is less likely.
05TSMNot a negotiating item.DECNo summit structureTaiwan is expected to take a back seat to Iran, which lowers the odds of a wording shock either way. Nothing specific points up.
06MP$47.26. 1M −21.3%; 1Y −35.45%.DECLong straddleDepressed, but a supply-access deal can shrink the scarcity premium. Both outcomes are large moves, which fits a straddle better than a call.
07BG$115.58. YTD +29.6%; −4.7% on the week.DEC15 Bear put spread or collarSome of the run has come off, but it is still largely pre-bought. Upside needs sorghum and corn volumes.
08ADM$85.18. YTD +48.3%.DECCollar or covered callA sell-the-news reaction is likelier than further upside. The structure protects gains rather than chasing them.
09INTC$112.96 AH. YTD +187.5%.DECLong strangle, 2–3 weeksMost exposed to export-control shifts, with a large run priced and implied volatility likely rich. Calls are expensive; owning both sides with time fits the week-of-chop case.
10AAPL · GOOGL · AMZN · MSFT · TSLA · DELL · C · JPMDinner-guest names.DECNo summit structureThe summit is not the main price driver this week. There is no specific catalyst to build a call around.
Dpasses Dpartly Dfails D = direction · E = expectations · C = catalyst

This is a suitability ranking, not a probability. A true probability needs each option chain: strike, premium, implied volatility and days to expiry. With those, each call's breakeven and a Black–Scholes probability of finishing above it can be calculated and the table re-ranked on the numbers. Futures and sector groups (soybeans, crude, LNG, China/HK, HK biopharma) are excluded. Strategy numbers other than 01, 12 and 15 are not shown and should be checked against spiking.com/56.

This session deploys two legs

Session 02 trades the long call and the long put, so where the table points at a spread, cost the single leg first and the spread beside it. The comparison is the lesson: what the second leg buys, and what it costs.

The event premium

Implied volatility rises into an event and usually falls straight after it. A long call bought before Thursday needs the move to beat both the premium paid and that post-event fall. That is why a pass with doubts points to the 12 bull call spread: the sold call offsets part of the inflated premium.

The failed tests are the map

MP fails direction, so the fit is a straddle. ADM fails expectations, so the fit is protection. INTC passes the catalyst test but fails expectations, so the fit is owning volatility with time rather than direction. Every row is a dot connected to a structure.

09 / Homework and reading

Eight assignments, six chapters, one summit.

The map is only worth what you do with it. These run from Wednesday to Friday and are built to be done on paper. No live risk is required to complete any of them, and none of them asks you to take a position. The ladder below puts the whole book behind you by session 06.

Your record, session 02 · The Summit Wiring0 of 30 ticked
0 of 8 you could teachChecking your record…

You are signed in, so your ticks are saved to your student record: they follow you across devices and your instructor can see what has been completed. Nobody grades them and no one scores you on them: what the record shows is coverage, not judgement. An unticked box is not a failure, it is the most useful line on the page — the part you have not done, or the part you could not explain.

6 chapterssession 02 · long call + long put

Session 02 deploys two single legs, both directional. The reading is what makes a single leg pay or fail: the line and its edges, being right and losing anyway, the number that decides everything, and the view turned into a structure. Session 01's volatility chapters sit behind it.

S01 · The AI Chokepoint Framework
Straddle + strangle15, 10, 11, 20, 22, 1
S02 · The Summit Wiring
Long call + long put8, 9, 12, 25, 26, 5
S03 · The Peak Earnings
Event volatility21, 23, 14, 27, 3
S04 · The Midterm Elections
Multi-leg structures16, 17, 18, 19, 4
S05 · The Santa Claus Rally
Income and discipline13, 24, 28, 29, 6
S06 · The Dogs of the Dow
Income across the pillars30, 31, 32, 2, 7
32 chapters · 6 sessions · the whole book read by session 06
Full plan, session by session
  1. S01The AI Chokepoint Framework · Straddle + strangle — Both structures are bought volatility, so the session reads what builds them: the primitives, what you are actually buying, the sensitivities, the move itself and width — the strangle's own idea. Chapter 1 opens the book.
    15 The Four Primitives p. 159 · 10 What You Are Actually Buying p. 101 · 11 The Four Sensitivities p. 109 · 20 Buying and Selling the Move p. 201 · 22 Buying Width p. 221 · 1 My First Love Was an Equation p. 3
  2. S02The Summit Wiring · Long call + long put — Two single legs, both directional. The line and its edges, being right and losing anyway, the number that decides everything, and the view turned into a structure. Chapter 5 is the rule change the whole course sits on.
    8 The Line, and What It Hides p. 87 · 9 Read the Edges First p. 95 · 12 Right and Still Wrong p. 119 · 25 The Number That Decides Everything p. 249 · 26 From a View to a Structure p. 257 · 5 The Fourth of June p. 55
  3. S03The Peak Earnings · Event volatility — Earnings are dated events: paying for precision, trading time, what happens at five o'clock, the week at the screen, and the whipsaw that catches anyone who holds through one badly.
    21 Paying for Precision p. 211 · 23 Trading Time p. 229 · 14 What Happens at Five O'Clock p. 147 · 27 A Week at the Screen p. 265 · 3 Through the Whipsaw p. 31
  4. S04The Midterm Elections · Multi-leg structures — A long, political catalyst wants more than one leg: the costume, trading a distance, mismatched counts and the third strike. Chapter 4 is the crash the old rule was built for.
    16 The Costume p. 167 · 17 Trading a Distance p. 177 · 18 When the Counts Don't Match p. 185 · 19 The Third Strike p. 193 · 4 A Wall Built for the Wrong Crash p. 41
  5. S05The Santa Claus Rally · Income and discipline — The seasonal trade tests discipline rather than insight: small capital against real risk, the identities underneath, the journal that works, and the chapter on losing. Chapter 6 is the broker's eighteen months.
    13 Small Capital, Real Risk p. 135 · 24 The Identities Underneath p. 237 · 28 The Only Journal That Works p. 273 · 29 When It Goes Against You p. 283 · 6 Your Broker Has Eighteen Months p. 63
  6. S06The Dogs of the Dow · Income across the pillars — Income is where it starts, then equities, property and crypto, then the fourth generation. Chapters 2 and 7 close the arc the book opened.
    30 Income Is Where It Starts p. 293 · 31 Equities, Property, Crypto p. 299 · 32 The Fourth Generation p. 309 · 2 Bought at Eight Thousand, Held Through the Laughter p. 19 · 7 Twenty-Seven Months p. 73

Chapters follow the structure each session deploys, not the book's sequence: bought volatility in session 01, single legs here, then event volatility, multi-leg structures, income discipline and the pillars. The match between a chapter and a structure is read from the Contents, so check it against Appendix B (p. 325) and Finding a Structure (p. 341) before you rely on it.

01
Due: Before Wednesday close

Trace one wire, end to end

Pick one lever from Figure 02 and write its path to a single listed exposure. Name the exact sentence that would have to appear in Thursday's readout for that exposure to move, and say in which direction.

Read before you start

  • Chapter 26 · From a View to a Structurep. 257 — read before anything else
  • Section 03 and 04 of this briefthe wiring and the sector records
  • Finding a Structurep. 341
  • Chapter 26 · From a View to a Structurep. 257
02
Due: Wednesday, before US open

Price the event before you have a view

Pull the option chain for the name you traced. Take the at-the-money call and put for the expiry that covers Thursday, add the two premiums, divide by the spot price. That is the move the market is already paying for.

Read before you start

  • Chapter 25 · The Number That Decides Everythingp. 249
  • Chapter 9 · Read the Edges Firstp. 95
  • Glossaryp. 331
03
Due: Wednesday

Run the three tests yourself

Take one stock from the ranking table in section 08 and one that is not in it. Score both on direction, expectations and catalyst, and write one line for each score. Disagree with my ranking where you think it is wrong, and say why.

Read before you start

  • Chapter 26 · From a View to a Structurep. 257
  • Section 08the decision path and the table
  • Structure 01, Long callReference p. 342 · spiking.com/56/long-call
04
Due: Wednesday

Build the defined-risk version

Take the name you would buy a call on and build the bull call spread instead. Write both side by side: premium paid, breakeven, maximum reward, maximum risk. Then state in one sentence what you gave up and what you bought with it.

Read before you start

  • Chapter 17 · Trading a Distancep. 177 — forward read, session 04
  • Structure 12, Bull call spreadReference p. 353 · spiking.com/56/bull-call-spread
  • Structure 01, Long callReference p. 342
05
Due: Wednesday

Protect what has already run

Agriculture is the pre-bought line in this summit. Take one processor and build the protective structure on a holding you imagine you own: the bear put spread, then the collar. Cost both.

Read before you start

  • Chapter 12 · Right and Still Wrongp. 119
  • Structure 15, Bear put spreadReference p. 356 · spiking.com/56/bear-put-spread
  • Finding a Structurep. 341 — to locate the collar by number
06
Due: Wednesday

Find the two-sided structure

MP fails the direction test, so the call is the wrong tool. Use Finding a Structure to locate the straddle and the strangle by number, read both Reference pages, and cost each one on MP for the expiry covering Thursday.

Read before you start

  • Chapter 22 · Buying Widthp. 221 — session 01 reading; the strangle is width
  • Finding a Structurep. 341, then the Reference page at 341 + structure number
  • Appendix Ap. 323
  • Indexp. 399 — look up volatility
07
Due: Wednesday close and Friday open

Log the volatility crush

Record implied volatility on your chosen name at Wednesday's close, then again after Thursday's readout. Record the stock's move over the same period. Then answer the only question that matters: did the move beat the premium?

Read before you start

  • Chapter 12 · Right and Still Wrongp. 119 — the whole point of this assignment
  • Chapter 8 · The Line, and What It Hidesp. 87
08
Due: Friday, after the Hong Kong close

Write the post-mortem

Mainland China is shut for Mid-Autumn on Friday and Hong Kong is open, so Hong Kong prices the summit first. Write 300 words: which dot fired, which did not, and which wire you had mapped wrongly.

Read before you start

  • Section 06 and 07scenarios and correlation risk
  • Chapter 28 · The Only Journal That Worksp. 273 — forward read, assigned in session 05
  • Further Readingp. 339

How to work

Paper first. Write the number before you look at anyone else's number, including mine. A view formed after reading commentary is not your view.

Nobody collects this

There is no marking and no submission. You tick your own boxes, and the only person the record is for is you. Bring 03, 06 and 08 to the live session; they are the ones we will argue about.

The rule that outranks the rest

This is education, not advice, and nothing here is a recommendation. Structures are costed on paper so that a bad week costs you a page of writing, not capital.

Reference pages follow the book's own rule: structure n sits at page 341 + n, so structure 01 is p. 342 and structure 12 is p. 353. Chapter numbers are deliberately not given here — locate each reading through the Contents and through Finding a Structure on p. 341, which is the skill the Reference section exists to teach.